Quantifying structural stability of transparent models for general insurance pricing

Özetle: The short duration of general insurance contracts leads to rapid distributional shifts in the data, warranting regular model updates.

Özet

The short duration of general insurance contracts leads to rapid distributional shifts in the data, warranting regular model updates. This process may yield a post-update model that differs considerably from the pre-update model in both predictions and structure. Structural stability is upstream of predictive stability, yet existing structural stability metrics are mostly restricted to simple decision trees. Thus, we first introduce the notion of functional transparency, characterising models with a prediction function that can be expressed as a sum of univariate functions for main effects and bivariate functions for pairwise interactions. Then, we propose the Mean Squared Shape function distance, a metric to quantify the structural stability of functionally transparent models, which are particularly relevant in actuarial science. Using three public auto insurance datasets, we present a benchmark study to demonstrate the usefulness of our metric in identifying a stable and accurate transparent model. Generalised linear models with centred numerical covariates are stable, and explainable boosting machines (EBMs) offer a compromise between stability and performance. We also find that stabilisation strategies, such as sequential modelling and fixed hyperparameters, can substantially improve stability for both EBM and XGBoost models, with negligible impact on performance.

Orijinal Özet (İngilizce)

The short duration of general insurance contracts leads to rapid distributional shifts in the data, warranting regular model updates. This process may yield a post-update model that differs considerably from the pre-update model in both predictions and structure. Structural stability is upstream of predictive stability, yet existing structural stability metrics are mostly restricted to simple decision trees. Thus, we first introduce the notion of functional transparency, characterising models with a prediction function that can be expressed as a sum of univariate functions for main effects and bivariate functions for pairwise interactions. Then, we propose the Mean Squared Shape function distance, a metric to quantify the structural stability of functionally transparent models, which are particularly relevant in actuarial science. Using three public auto insurance datasets, we present a benchmark study to demonstrate the usefulness of our metric in identifying a stable and accurate transparent model. Generalised linear models with centred numerical covariates are stable, and explainable boosting machines (EBMs) offer a compromise between stability and performance. We also find that stabilisation strategies, such as sequential modelling and fixed hyperparameters, can substantially improve stability for both EBM and XGBoost models, with negligible impact on performance.

Kaynak: arXiv:2611.17308 · PDF