Beyond Forecasting: Recasting Volatility Control as a Routing Problem

Özetle: Volatility control converts risk estimates into portfolio exposure, yet existing approaches often rely on a fixed volatility estimator or a pre-defined control rule that may not adapt to changing market conditions.

Özet

Volatility control converts risk estimates into portfolio exposure, yet existing approaches often rely on a fixed volatility estimator or a pre-defined control rule that may not adapt to changing market conditions. We propose VolRouter, a modular framework that formulates volatility control as state-conditioned routing over estimator-controller pairs. VolRouter first summarizes market conditions into a control-relevant state profile and then performs routing through three stages: state inference, switch review, and pair selection. The Router can be implemented using rule-based, learnable, or LLM-based decision modules, while portfolio actions remain generated by predefined control policies. We evaluate VolRouter across S&P 500, Multi-Asset, Bitcoin, and USDT volatility-control settings. VolRouter achieves the highest Sharpe ratio in three of four settings. On S&P 500, it improves Sharpe from 0.952 for RV + Naive Scaling to 1.222 while reducing maximum drawdown from 15.10% to 12.58% and daily CVaR from 1.76% to 1.32%. On Multi-Asset, it improves Sharpe from 1.498 to 1.540 and reduces CVaR from 1.56% to 1.18%. Bitcoin shows similar improvements in risk-adjusted performance, while USDT provides a boundary case where simpler state-aware selectors remain competitive. Ablation and sensitivity analyses show that the improvement comes from relative policy evaluation and selective persistent switching rather than simply expanding the policy library. These results suggest that volatility control can be viewed as a policy-selection problem when risk management requirements vary across market states.

Orijinal Özet (İngilizce)

Volatility control converts risk estimates into portfolio exposure, yet existing approaches often rely on a fixed volatility estimator or a pre-defined control rule that may not adapt to changing market conditions. We propose VolRouter, a modular framework that formulates volatility control as state-conditioned routing over estimator-controller pairs. VolRouter first summarizes market conditions into a control-relevant state profile and then performs routing through three stages: state inference, switch review, and pair selection. The Router can be implemented using rule-based, learnable, or LLM-based decision modules, while portfolio actions remain generated by predefined control policies. We evaluate VolRouter across S&P 500, Multi-Asset, Bitcoin, and USDT volatility-control settings. VolRouter achieves the highest Sharpe ratio in three of four settings. On S&P 500, it improves Sharpe from 0.952 for RV + Naive Scaling to 1.222 while reducing maximum drawdown from 15.10% to 12.58% and daily CVaR from 1.76% to 1.32%. On Multi-Asset, it improves Sharpe from 1.498 to 1.540 and reduces CVaR from 1.56% to 1.18%. Bitcoin shows similar improvements in risk-adjusted performance, while USDT provides a boundary case where simpler state-aware selectors remain competitive. Ablation and sensitivity analyses show that the improvement comes from relative policy evaluation and selective persistent switching rather than simply expanding the policy library. These results suggest that volatility control can be viewed as a policy-selection problem when risk management requirements vary across market states.

Kaynak: arXiv:2608.10375 · PDF